On Friday, President Clinton postponed a decision on the national missile defense system, saying it would be 2006 or 2007 at the earliest.
But the president made only a decision on one system.
What he did not say, and what was covered up by the debate about the system, is that some of the smaller ones
Known anti-missile weapons may be candidates for the same job.
They are known as theater missile defense systems designed to protect American troops and bases in relatively small conflict areas, as was tried in the Persian Gulf War in 1991.
But according to experts inside and outside the military, some areas that are already under development may be expanded to protect larger areas, even the United States as a whole.
Many of these systems have not been tested for the original purpose, not to mention a new, more ambitious system, the difficulty of adapting to them will range from simply changing computer software to adding complex new sensors or other hardware.
Nevertheless, as some of these weapons are scheduled to be available as a theater defense system by 2007, he announced a delay
Clinton had a more careful review of whether they would eventually be adjusted to provide some form of defense.
He said: "It does refute the Pentagon's argument that if you want to build a missile defense system as soon as possible, your only option is the missile defense system they have been pushing . "
Michael o'hanlen, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, specializes in military policy.
Plan advertising Mr.
Clinton has postponed plans to track missiles in space and shoot down the dropped warhead from land.
Website based in the United States.
Many theater defense systems use interceptors, lasers, or debris explosives fired from ships or aircraft that can be relatively close to small countries like North Korea, his missile program is believed to be a reason for the need for a national missile defense system.
Some of these theater systems are now planning to shoot down in a short time. and medium-
A range missile in the process of flying or falling to the target, but supporters say they may adapt to destroying that faster long flight
This will be the goal of the national missile defense system.
This can be done by adding long-
Remote sensors may give theater systems enough time to destroy missiles in flight, or target them shortly after the missile launches
Called the stage of Ascension.
Other theater defense systems are designed specifically for the promotion phase.
Idea of Boost-
President Vladimir V even approved a phased interception this summer.
Russia's Putin says Russia may cooperate with the United States to develop Russia.
Russia opposes the national missile defense system, considers it possible to destroy its arsenal and violates the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty signed between the United States and the Soviet Union in 1972.
But Russia does not object to the theater system that plays a role in the Ascension phase.
One reason is that they did not violate the anti-missile treaty.
Another reason is that due to the large size of Russia, the position of the interceptor cannot be close enough to attack them when the Russian rocket is launched.
However, in addition to its opposition to the defense system, China also sees theater defense systems as a threat because, in theory, they can be used to protect potential rivals Taiwan and Japan.
However, to a large extent, the resistance generated by the theater defense system at home and abroad is different from the Pentagon's idea of national missile defense, because theater defense systems are not intended to provide a comprehensive defense that challenges existing arms control theories, based on mutual vulnerability.
According to arms control experts, if advertising is expanded to protect the United States as a whole, it will undoubtedly change, and any defense system that does so may violate the anti-missile treaty.
Some critics believe that these theater systems are trying to introduce the national missile defense system through the back door.
In Friday's speech
Clinton said Russia had agreed to cooperate with the United States in areas such as the theater missile defense system, but he did not mention the broader potential of the system.
Nevertheless, Russia may agree to amend the anti-missile treaty to accommodate the wider use of theater missile defense systems that it does not consider to be a direct threat.
Defense Secretary Harold Brown of the Carter administration
"This may be a way to uphold the anti-missile treaty," he said . ". Dr.
Dean wilkenning, director of science programs at Stanford University's Center for International Security and Cooperation, said, "there is no clear technical difference between the war zone and the national missile defense system.
"Refers to a naval system that can shoot down a missile with an interceptor on board.
Wilkening said, "they are well on the road to becoming a fully capable national missile defense system.
"Until recently, with missile projects in countries such as Iraq and North Korea, the idea of building a national missile defense system lost support after the Cold War.
But in the 1990s S, the expenditure on theater defense grew more or less. The $5.
1 billion according to data from Washington's nonpartisan strategy and budget assessment center, the cost that the United States will spend on missile defense in the fiscal year 2001 will be split between theater defense and national missile defense.
This is in sharp contrast to the situation in the 1980s, when defense spending was dominant.
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Names like theaters-
High Altitude Area Defense (Thaad)
Advanced capabilities of Patriots
And the Navy's defense across the sea and the Navy.
Use interceptors fired from ships or trailers that try to hit enemy missiles or explode near them.
In these systems, extensive testing has been carried out on the new patriots who are scheduled to be put into use from next year.
Unlike the version used in the Gulf War that exploded near the drop missiles, the goal of this version is to hit them.
The THAAD system has also undergone extensive testing and is expected to be deployed by 2007.
The current plan is to put the entire defense system of the Navy into emergency use in 2007, fully deployed in three years, and shorter-
Naval Regional defense should be prepared as soon as possible.
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A project that received generous funding, but was rarely advertised, was the development of a powerful laser that shot down ballistic missiles from space platforms, intended to be used by 2013.
The airborne laser project, operated by the Air Force, aims to install similar lasers on a modified Boeing 747 and start shooting down test missiles by 2003.
According to a spokesman for the plan, seven aircraft are expected to be operational by 2009 if Congress provides funding.
The laser system can be designed as a national or theater defense system.
Some proponents of the warzone defense system are in favor of using them during the ascension phase, as bait such as balloons or fake warheads are separated from missiles at a higher level, making it more difficult to find and shoot down real warheads.
Others insist that this is not the only way to intercept protection that may be provided to major powers such as Russia, China or Iran or to countries that are not accessible.
In any case, those who will use the theater missile defense system, or T. M. D.
Systems favored by the Pentagon say their mobility and flexibility make them better choices.
"The national missile defense capability developed from T. M. D.
Could be cheaper and contribute better to both defense
Range ballistic missiles and allow the ability to grow more effectively as the threat increases, "wrote John M. Deutch, Dr.
Brown and John.
White, Summer Quarterly, Foreign Policy magazine. Mr. advertising
Former director of the Central Intelligence Agency, Deputy Minister of Defense Dr Deutch
White, lecturer in public policy, John F. , Harvard University
Both the Kennedy School of Government and former deputy defense ministers served under President Clinton.
Conservatives who have long supported the expansion of the national missile defense system are enthusiastic about the theater defense system.
But, to be precise, it is still not entirely clear what additional improvements may be needed to turn these systems into defense by intercepting missiles halfway, Dr.
Wilkening of Stanford University said that because most of them are still under development.
In addition, the recent amendment to the 1972 Anti-Missile Treaty, which has not yet been ratified by Congress, prohibits direct theater defense testing of ICBM.
So far, the most important factor needed to turn these theater defenses into potential national defenses is long term --
The distance sensor, Dr.
David Wright is a senior staff scientist who focuses on the Union of Scientists and is also a researcher at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
With this sensor technology, the United States has planned to deploy in space and possibly on the ground in the next decade. The Navy system "starts to look like an interceptor, yes, in principle, shooting down strategic missiles . "Wright said.
Critics of the transformation of the theater system say the change will be more difficult --
For example, the interceptor needed is much faster and more mobile than the theater system can collect.
In addition, the sensors carried on the interceptor that aim at the target may need to be improved. Dr.
Wright pointed out that the system must be able to distinguish between a missile and a bait that is bound to accompany an enemy attack.
A State Department official said converts exaggerated their reasons.
"They seem to suggest you don't need to go to the UN. M. D.
The official, who declined to be named, said: "The route that this government is taking . ".
"There are flaws in the presentation and analysis of these mouthfuls.
"In any case, the government has no plans to turn theater defense into defense," the official said.
"As a practical problem, it is difficult for the United States to develop a system and mark it as something with the aim of secretly completing a completely different task. "But Lt. Col.
Rick Lehner, spokesman for the Ballistic Missile Defense Organization, said: "All these systems can be applied to war zones and national missile defense systems.
It just depends on which direction the country wants to go.
"Modified theater defense is not the only way to create such a defense.
According to some experts, the simplest and cheapest solution is to launch faster interceptors from military cargo ships from scratch, a strategy advocated by Dr. Richard L.
Garwin is a physicist at the Foreign Relations Council, or a physicist on a plane.
Wilkening has studied it.
The Air Force is developing a system based on a completely different technology, called airborne laser, which aims at the stage of Ascension. An eight-year $1.
The 6 billion launch is planned to shoot down a missile in 2003, which is expected to include a laser installed on a modified Boeing 747 nose.
The Air Force is designing a laser to destroy a short time. and medium-
When the missiles were launched, their metal shells broke.
If the system works, it may be used against ICBM. The space-
The laser project will receive $0. 148 billion in the fiscal year of 2001, and will spend $2 billion to $3 billion through the first planned Space anti-missile shooting in 2013. Douglas P.
Crawford, the integrator of the Ballistic Missile Defense Organization.
Laser can be used to deal with theater or national threat if it works, Dr. Crawford said. (
This is the only improvement.
Since the laser can be launched from a distance, it will directly threaten Russia's phase defense. )
He added that the technology has received more positive acceptance than it has been for years.
He said: "The name Star Wars was a mocking word in the early 80 s and 90 s, but I haven't heard of it recently.
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A version of this article appears on the national edition of September 5, 2000 with the title: other systems may provideS. Missile Shield.